I am a budding amateur astronomer, and I have a keen interest in our Sun. I have been following Solar Cycle 24 closely this year, and while it is not the most exciting pass time there are some cliffhanger moments which I will never forget. I am vigilant rather than paranoid, I understand that lots of things MIGHT happen but likely will not. Still I am concerned about the lack of consensus amongst the Heliophysicists out there, the numbers are split down the middle about what this solar cycle will do. Even on this site there are differing opinions which range from mini-ice age to planet hiding behind the Sun. Time will tell it's tale, and at the very least in a year or two this cycle will have its way with us and sink back into a minimum state.
In the meantime I try to keep one eye trained on the data readouts or my newtonian telescope, I check on the Sun the way most people check the weather - at least once a day and more frequently if I'm planning a trip. I find pleasure in the various states our Sun cycles through and my children know more about the Sun than most 5th graders. My kids are 2.
It might seem a little extreme, but I have a Google Alert set up to email me each time "Solar Flare" appears on the web. This brings oodles of emails to my inbox, and I delete most of them after reading the headline and seeing that it's a new flashlight, or that it's referencing an event 5 weeks ago that I consumed real-time and know more about than the article does. I've even sent in corrections to quite a few sites and made some good friendships in the process. I figure if something really big goes down my phone will start blowing up with Google Alerts. Who knows?
But over the last week my smartphone has been doing double duty with a barrage of emails from my Google Alert, but not about any X29 events that would cause me to go home, rent a backhoe and start digging a bunker... the alerts refer to exactly the opposite, but you have to read the article to understand what I mean.
My concern with this article is twofold; First, it's frigging EVERYWHERE. It has received more headlines than The Northern Lights which appeared in 30 states on 10-24-11. Now THAT was news worthy. This article will do nothing but get readers halfway through the article, realize that it's just NASA saying don't worry, and go back about thier day.
And I suspect that's what people will remember when a REAL event occurs, is that there is no threat. Will they even read the important articles after this piece of trash has wasted their time?
I hope they do. Losing power on a global level will be worse than a nuclear holocaust to a country like the USA. Millions of people dying from starvation, no way to get them food or water. But when I say millions, I mean PER CITY. Like I said, time will tell. It sucks that the real news gets marginalized and the shit stories go viral. I've been thinking about writing about this for days, but the last Google Alert was the straw that broke the camels back.
Just the same, I'm keeping my alerts going, this shit storm will pass and I can get back to real news about the Sun, like the 750,000km filament which is earth facing and trails nearly halfway around the Sun. Hyder flare, anyone? Nope, no headlines about that one!
Be well friends, and keep one eye pointed up!
Comments
@ Alex:
Losing power due to a geoeffective event, even on a global level isn't an ELE. really it would affect humans and any livestock under our care. I have no doubt however that even mankind would survive such a catastrophe. Many of the third world countries would thrive because they are already used to operating with a lack of technology.
Then again, if the electrified fences around Jurrasic Park fail, we're all screwed. :P
Does everything have to lead to an ELE.....
We have seen these in the past and we will see them in the future..... I do realize that the sky will eventually fall but not today.....
Interesting Keith, and it really makes sense that the Senate shot it down - those power utility companies are all about their bottom line, and beefing up our infrastructure is something that has been allowed to slide across the board whether it be bridges, dams or utilities. Consumerism has been continuously propped up at the expense of the house of cards we live in. Soon it will be more than bridges failing during rush hour, and right when there's no money to make the needed repairs.
As for Europe Kim, there is not as much information available about the state of thier power grids, but it comes down to this; when there is a geoeffective (Earth impacting) event, the ionosphere of the Earth gets charged and voltage can be induced into the power lines. This induced power increases the voltage running through the grid and gets bottlenecked at huge step-down transformers. These transformers cost upwards of a million dollars each and are custom built - and the US does not have a manufacturer in-country we order them from foreign nations. So when this extra current bottlenecks at the transformer it eventually causes a meltdown and the transformer blows, taking the grid down with it. It can take up to a year for one of these transformers to be built, much less replace the hundreds or thousands that could fail simultaneously in such an event. So we could be out of power for years and years. I'm not sure our enemies would want us at that point, but if they did we would be sitting ducks. If such an event happened it would likely hit more than one continent, and it is a roll of the dice to know whether the utility companies overseas would shut down like Norway and Sweden know how to do. Lots of people at the controls who are worried about their jobs, and when there's a blackout someone's head ends up on the chopping block - so who will pull the plug in time?
One more interesting note, I had a problem with the power coming into my house, and after much troubleshooting I finally got the power company out to take a look. It turns out that the connections from my house to the telephone pole had corroded and had to be replaced. This was a couple months ago when there was some significant activity, and my power just happened to fail during a solar event which was intense, but had not caused a reported power surge in our grid. Just the same I asked the lineman if he had received an increased number of calls due to the jump in solar activity, and he looked at me like I was crazy! I tried to explain my reasoning, and he told me in his 26 years in the utility he had never heard of such malarky.
So is it only the higher up guys who know how much the Sun can effect our grid? This guy seemed to know what he was doing, it's like a forest ranger thinking cigarette butts don't start forest fires.
Long comment, thanks for reading, but be aware; there is no calvary coming, and it seems that NASA is helping to desensitize us against believing another Carrington Event could happen like it did in 1859. It's not a matter of if, but when. As for me and mine, we will be ready.
If the U.S. grid was damaged and europe's was preserved because they shut down at the appropriate time, that is smart thinking on their part. Now, does this include Russia and China? If so, could this leave the U.S. vunerable to invasion if the grid in the united states was out of commission for an extended period of time?
I wonder if a power outtage on a global scale will be allowed
People still read that shit
Shaku there are many her that know the outcome of solar flares.I guess you missed Keith H or Cheryl's stories and the many other posts. Most here are much more aware than you think.
http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/15/solar-flares-remind-of-greater-...