Earth Watch Report – Saturday August 25th, 2012

August 25, 2012 by desertrose

Extreme Temperatures/ Weather / Drought

Climate vs. weather: Extreme events narrow the doubts

Some scientists say that questions over whether man-made warming is disrupting the Earth’s climate are diminishing Severely damaged corn stalks due to a widespread drought are seen at sunset on a farm near Oakland City, Indiana, August 15, 2012. Heatwaves, drought and floods that have struck the northern hemisphere for the third summer running are narrowing doubts that man-made warming is disrupting Earth’s climate system, say some scientists. Heatwaves, drought and floods that have struck the northern hemisphere for the third summer running are narrowing doubts that man-made warming is disrupting Earth’s climate system, say some scientists.

Climate experts as a group are reluctant to ascribe a single extreme event or season to global warming. Weather, they argue, has to be assessed over far longer periods to confirm a shift in the climate and whether natural factors or fossil-fuel emissions are the cause. But for some, such caution is easing. A lengthening string of brutal weather events is going hand in hand with record-breaking rises in temperatures and greenhouse-gas levels, an association so stark that it can no longer be dismissed as statistical coincidence, they say. “We prefer to look at average annual temperatures on a global scale, rather than extreme temperatures,” said Jean Jouzel, vice chairman of the UN’s Nobel-winning scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Even so, according to computer models, “over the medium and long term, one of the clearest signs of climate change is a rise in the frequency of heatwaves”, he said. “Over the last 50 years, we have seen that as warming progresses, heatwaves are becoming more and more frequent,” Jouzel said. “If we don’t do anything, the risk of a heatwave occurring will be 10 times higher by 2100 compared with the start of the century.” The past three months have seen some extraordinary weather in the United States, Europe and East and Southeast Asia. The worst drought in more than 50 years hit the US Midwest breadbasket while forest fires stoked by fierce heat and dry undergrowth erupted in California, France, Greece, Italy, Croatia and Spain. Heavy rains flooded Manila and Beijing and China’s eastern coast was hit by an unprecedented three typhoons in a week.

Last month was the warmest ever recorded for land in the northern hemisphere and a record high for the contiguous United States, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally, the temperature in July was the fourth highest since records began in 1880, it said. James Hansen, arguably the world’s most famous climate scientist (and a bogeyman to climate skeptics), contends the link between extreme heat events and global warming is now all but irrefutable. The evidence, he says, comes not from computer simulations but from weather observations themselves. In a study published this month in the peer-reviewed US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Hansen and colleagues compared temperatures over the past three decades to a baseline of 1951-80, a period of relative stability. Over the last 30 years, there was 0.5-0.6 C (0.9-1.0 F) of warming, a rise that seems small but “is already having important effects”, said Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. During the baseline period, cold summers occurred about a third of the time, but this fell to about 10 percent in the 30-year period that followed. Hot summers which during the baseline period occurred 33 percent of the time, rose to about 75 percent in the three decades that followed. Even more remarkable, though, was the geographical expansion of heatwaves. During the baseline period, an unusually hot summer would yield a heatwave that would cover just a few tenths of one percent of the world’s land area. Today, though, an above-the-norm summer causes heatwaves that in total affect about 10 percent of the land surface. “The extreme summer climate anomalies in Texas in 2011, in Moscow in 2010 and in France in 2003 almost certainly would not have occurred in the absence of global warming with its resulting shift of the anomaly situation,” says the paper. In March, an IPCC special report said there was mounting evidence of a shift in patterns of extreme events in some regions, including more intense and longer droughts and rainfall. But it saw no increases in the frequency, length or severity of tropical storms.

Today

Forest / Wild Fire

USA

State of Alaska, [Dry Creek]

Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Saturday, 25 August, 2012 at 03:54 (03:54 AM) UTC.

Description

A wildfire burning on military land south of Fairbanks has grown to 42,000 acres, and smoke continues to cause hazy conditions. The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner reports the Dry Creek Fire is growing because of shifting winds. The fire was more than 28,000 acres on Thursday, and spread 14,000 acres throughout the day. The fire located on land co-managed by the U.S. Army and the Bureau of Land Management about 25 miles south of Fairbanks. Air quality advisories have been issued. The fire is not being actively fought since there’s no threat to people or resources. However, that could change if the fire jumps the Tanana River. The National Weather Service expects winds to shift the fire away from population centers on Friday, when rain could also suppress the fire.

UN agency calls for global action plan on drought

A Malian refugee pulls a jerry-can of water in Mauritania Enlarge A Malian refugee pulls a jerrican of water at the Mbere refugee camp on May 3, 2012, near Bassiknou, southern Mauritania. The worst effects of drought could be avoided if countries had a disaster management plan to confront the problem, the UN World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday. The worst effects of drought could be avoided if countries had a disaster management plan to confront the problem, the UN World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday.

With world food prices 6 percent higher now than at the start of the year and approaching the 2010 record, “it’s time for countries affected by drought to move towards developing a policy”, said Mannava Sivakumar, director of the WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch. Such a global approach would also help counter the “major impact” of El Nino, said Sivakumar, in reference to the weather system credited with causing dry conditions in countries including Australia, India and much of east Africa, and flooding in Latin American countries. Initial forecasts for El Nino show that water temperatures in the Pacific are likely to be warmer than normal for September and October, he said, echoing recent Japanese meteorological research that the phenomenon is likely to last until winter in the northern hemisphere. “If it continues through the winter months there could be some consequences but we will carefully monitor (them),” said Sivakumar. Despite repeated droughts throughout human history and their long-term impact compared with other natural disasters, Australia is the only country in the world to develop a risk management policy for drought, Sivakumar said. “To fill the existing vacuum in virtually every nation (for drought management)” the WMO is to host a high-level meeting on national drought policies in Geneva next March, the UN agency said in a statement. Such measures would include better drought monitoring by countries, implementing early-warning systems and most importantly putting in place an “effective system to help the poorest of the poor”, Sivakumar said. Communicating the information to largely uneducated rural farming communities was essential, said Sivakumar, since this would enable them to avoid the worst effects of droughts by taking measures such as thinning crops to reduce the overall water requirement. This would ensure that they would have “some crop instead of no crop”, said Sivakumar.

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Storms

Active tropical storm system(s)

Name of storm system	Location	Formed	Last update	Last category	Course	Wind Speed	Gust	Wave	Source	Details
Tembin (15W)	Pacific Ocean	19.08.2012	25.08.2012	Typhoon II	260 °	139 km/h	167 km/h	5.18 m	JTWC

Tropical Storm data

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Storm name:	Tembin (15W)
Area:	Pacific Ocean
Start up location:	N 17° 42.000, E 124° 36.000
Start up:	19th August 2012
Status:	Active
Track long:	531.98 km
Top category.:
Report by:	JTWC

Useful links:

Past track
Date	Time	Position	Speed km/h	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Category	Course	Wave	Pressure	Source
19th Aug 2012	05:28:29	N 17° 42.000, E 124° 36.000	9	56	74	Tropical Depression	190	11		JTWC
19th Aug 2012	10:11:34	N 17° 30.000, E 124° 48.000	6	83	102	Tropical Storm	135	9		JTWC
20th Aug 2012	05:16:05	N 18° 0.000, E 124° 48.000	6	139	167	Typhoon I.	360	9		JTWC
20th Aug 2012	10:35:24	N 18° 24.000, E 124° 54.000	7	176	213	Typhoon II.	15	9		JTWC
21st Aug 2012	04:48:23	N 20° 12.000, E 125° 18.000	13	213	259	Typhoon IV.	360	15		JTWC
21st Aug 2012	10:41:18	N 21° 0.000, E 125° 24.000	15	204	250	Typhoon III.	5	16		JTWC
22nd Aug 2012	10:16:00	N 22° 30.000, E 124° 12.000	9	167	204	Typhoon II.	310	15		JTWC
23rd Aug 2012	04:49:56	N 22° 30.000, E 123° 36.000	4	204	232	Typhoon III.	270	9		JTWC
23rd Aug 2012	10:42:38	N 22° 42.000, E 123° 6.000	9	194	241	Typhoon III.	295	15		JTWC
24th Aug 2012	05:23:44	N 22° 6.000, E 120° 30.000	19	185	232	Typhoon III.	245	19		JTWC
24th Aug 2012	10:05:02	N 22° 18.000, E 119° 48.000	13	111	139	Tropical Storm	285	17		JTWC

Current position
Date	Time	Position	Speed km/h	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Category	Course	Wave feet	Pressure	Source
25th Aug 2012	05:19:01	N 22° 24.000, E 118° 6.000	13	139	167	Typhoon II	260 °	17		JTWC

Forecast track
Date	Time	Position	Category	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Source
26th Aug 2012	12:00:00	N 20° 36.000, E 116° 54.000	Typhoon III	157	194	JTWC
26th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 21° 12.000, E 116° 36.000	Typhoon III	148	185	JTWC
27th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 20° 42.000, E 117° 54.000	Typhoon III	157	194	JTWC
28th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 22° 42.000, E 120° 48.000	Typhoon II	139	167	JTWC
29th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 25° 42.000, E 122° 24.000	Typhoon I	120	148	JTWC
30th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 29° 0.000, E 123° 6.000	Typhoon I	102	130	JTWC

Bolaven (16W)

Pacific Ocean

20.08.2012

25.08.2012

SuperTyphoon

325 °

232 km/h

278 km/h

5.49 m

JTWC

Tropical Storm data

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Storm name:	Bolaven (16W)
Area:	Pacific Ocean
Start up location:	N 17° 18.000, E 141° 30.000
Start up:	20th August 2012
Status:	Active
Track long:	743.39 km
Top category.:
Report by:	JTWC

Useful links:

Past track
Date	Time	Position	Speed km/h	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Category	Course	Wave	Pressure	Source
20th Aug 2012	05:13:46	N 17° 18.000, E 141° 30.000	13	56	74	Tropical Depression	330	12		JTWC
20th Aug 2012	10:34:54	N 17° 48.000, E 141° 24.000	11	65	83	Tropical Storm	330	16		JTWC
21st Aug 2012	04:47:46	N 18° 12.000, E 140° 30.000	9	93	120	Tropical Storm	295	10		JTWC
21st Aug 2012	10:38:01	N 18° 24.000, E 140° 24.000	7	102	130	Tropical Storm	285	11		JTWC
22nd Aug 2012	10:13:54	N 19° 12.000, E 138° 24.000	15	148	185	Typhoon I.	285	19		JTWC
23rd Aug 2012	04:49:02	N 19° 42.000, E 135° 36.000	9	167	204	Typhoon II.	280	10		JTWC
23rd Aug 2012	10:40:31	N 20° 0.000, E 135° 0.000	11	185	232	Typhoon III.	300	16		JTWC
24th Aug 2012	05:22:54	N 21° 0.000, E 133° 36.000	11	194	241	Typhoon III.	325	16		JTWC
24th Aug 2012	10:02:27	N 21° 42.000, E 133° 12.000	15	213	259	Typhoon IV.	330	18		JTWC

Current position
Date	Time	Position	Speed km/h	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Category	Course	Wave feet	Pressure	Source
25th Aug 2012	05:16:28	N 23° 30.000, E 132° 6.000	15	232	278	SuperTyphoon	325 °	18		JTWC

Forecast track
Date	Time	Position	Category	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Source
26th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 25° 42.000, E 129° 24.000	SuperTyphoon	250	306	JTWC
26th Aug 2012	12:00:00	N 26° 54.000, E 127° 54.000	SuperTyphoon	241	296	JTWC
27th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 28° 36.000, E 126° 48.000	SuperTyphoon	232	278	JTWC
28th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 34° 54.000, E 125° 24.000	Typhoon IV	194	241	JTWC
29th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 43° 12.000, E 127° 18.000	Typhoon I	102	130	JTWC
30th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 50° 18.000, E 135° 30.000	Tropical Depression	56	74	JTWC

Isaac (AL09)

Atlantic Ocean

21.08.2012

25.08.2012

Hurricane I

310 °

111 km/h

139 km/h

4.57 m

NOAA NHC

Tropical Storm data

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Storm name:	Isaac (AL09)
Area:	Atlantic Ocean
Start up location:	N 15° 12.000, W 51° 12.000
Start up:	21st August 2012
Status:	Active
Track long:	1,421.34 km
Top category.:
Report by:	NOAA NHC

Useful links:

Past track
Date	Time	Position	Speed km/h	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Category	Course	Wave	Pressure	Source
21st Aug 2012	10:45:53	N 15° 12.000, W 51° 12.000	31	56	74	Tropical Depression	270	12	1007 MB	NOAA NHC
22nd Aug 2012	04:54:04	N 15° 36.000, W 55° 36.000	30	65	83	Tropical Storm	275	16	1006 MB	NOAA NHC
22nd Aug 2012	11:01:55	N 15° 30.000, W 57° 18.000	30	74	93	Tropical Storm	270	19	1003 MB	NOAA NHC
23rd Aug 2012	05:06:43	N 15° 48.000, W 63° 0.000	31	74	93	Tropical Storm	270	22	1003 MB	NOAA NHC
24th Aug 2012	05:17:31	N 16° 42.000, W 68° 42.000	28	74	93	Tropical Storm	290	19	1001 MB	NOAA NHC
24th Aug 2012	11:15:35	N 16° 6.000, W 70° 0.000	24	74	93	Tropical Storm	275	19	1000 MB	NOAA NHC

Current position
Date	Time	Position	Speed km/h	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Category	Course	Wave feet	Pressure	Source
25th Aug 2012	05:21:33	N 17° 42.000, W 72° 30.000	22	111	139	Hurricane I	310 °	15	990 MB	NOAA NHC

Forecast track
Date	Time	Position	Category	Wind km/h	Gust km/h	Source
26th Aug 2012	12:00:00	N 23° 24.000, W 79° 24.000	Hurricane I	102	120	NOAA NHC
26th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 21° 42.000, W 76° 42.000	Tropical Depression	93	111	NOAA NHC
27th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 24° 54.000, W 81° 36.000	Hurricane I	111	139	NOAA NHC
28th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 27° 6.000, W 84° 36.000	Hurricane II	130	157	NOAA NHC
29th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 30° 0.000, W 86° 30.000	Hurricane III	148	185	NOAA NHC
30th Aug 2012	00:00:00	N 32° 30.000, W 86° 30.000	Tropical Depression	74	93	NOAA NHC

NASA sees an active tropical Atlantic again

by Staff Writers
Greenbelt MD (SPX)

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on Aug. 21 at 7:45 a.m. EDT shows three of the four tropical systems being watched in the Atlantic Ocean basin. From left to right are: System 95L, Tropical Depression 9 and System 96L. Post-tropical Storm Gordon is just beyond the horizon. Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project.

The Atlantic Ocean is kicking into high gear with low pressure areas that have a chance at becoming tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. Satellite imagery from NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites have provided visible, infrared and microwave data on four low pressure areas. In addition, NASA’s GOES Project has been producing imagery of all systems using NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite to see post-Tropical Storm Gordon, Tropical Depression 9, and Systems 95L and 96L.

Tropical Storm Gordon is no longer a tropical storm and is fizzling out east of the Azores. Tropical Depression 9 was born on Aug. 20 and continues to get organized. Behind Tropical Depression 9 in the eastern Atlantic is another low pressure area called System 96L. In the Gulf of Mexico lies another low, called System 95L.

In an image taken from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite on Aug. 21 at 7:45 a.m. EDT, all of the systems were visible except for post-tropical Storm Gordon. The storms are seen lined up along the Atlantic basin from left to right with System 95L in the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 9 just east of the Caribbean Sea and System 96L in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

NOAA manages the GOES-13 satellite, and NASA’s GOES Project uses the data to create images and animations out of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Tropical Depression 9
On Aug. 20 at 0435 UTC (12:35 a.m. EDT) before System 94L organized into Tropical Storm 9, NASA’s Aqua satellite passed overhead, and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured an infrared image of the storm.

It showed that the strongest convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up the tropical cyclone) were located south of the center of circulation.

Those thunderstorms had cold cloud top temperatures of -63 Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius) that indicated there was strong uplift in the low pressure area, and were an indication that the system could strengthen, which it did later into a depression.

Tropical Depression 9 has been the cause for tropical storm warning posts in a number of islands. On Aug. 21, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominica, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, and St. Martin.

TD9 appears as a rounded storm on the GOES-13 satellite image from Aug. 21. In the image, low pressure area “System 96L” trails to the southwest of TD9.

On Aug. 21 at 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) Tropical Depression 9 (TD9) had maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 kmh) and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later [today]. It was located about 645 miles (1,035 km) east of Guadeloupe near latitude 15.1 north and longitude 51.8 west. TD90 is moving toward the west near 20 mph (32 kmh) and is expected to continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

NHC said that the cyclone should move through the central Lesser Antilles on Wed., Aug. 22 and move into the Caribbean Sea the next day. NHC expects rainfall between 4 and 8 inches to affect the northern Windward and the Leeward Islands, accompanied by heavy surf and rip tides. System 96L in Eastern Atlantic

System 96L appears well-defined on the GOES-13 satellite imagery. It is associated with a tropical wave, and is spinning about 425 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC said that System 96L could very well become the tenth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane Season in the next day or two. It is moving to the west at 15 mph.

System 95L Struggles in the Gulf of Mexico
The eastern-most low pressure area in the Atlantic Ocean basin is System 95L, located in the western Gulf of Mexico. It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms just off-shore of the northeastern coast of Mexico. The low-level center of circulation is also elongated, which is a bad sign for a tropical cyclone trying to organize. Tropical cyclones need a strong, rounded circulation to strengthen.

The NHC noted that slow development is still possible before System 95L moves inland in northeastern Mexico later in the day on Wed. Aug 21. The system has a 30 percent chance of developing before that happens. Once inland, its chances for development are greatly reduced because it will be cut off from its life-giving warm water supply.

Tropical Storm Gordon is History
On Monday, August 20, satellite imagery and surface data revealed that Tropical Storm Gordon lost his tropical characteristics, making it a post-tropical cyclone. According to Reuters news, Gordon caused some power outages, fallen trees and minor flooding.

The National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory on Gordon on August 20 at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC). At that time, Gordon still had maximum sustained winds near 45 mph (75 kmh) and was weakening.

Gordon was about 370 miles (595 km) east-northeast of the Azores, near latitude 39.2 north and longitude 20.3 west. Gordon was moving east-northeast near 16 mph (26 kmh) and was expected to turn southeast while weakening further. Gordon is expected to dissipate in a couple of days east of Portugal.

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