UPDATED By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Andrew Rosenthal
UPDATED 12:30 AM CST, January 22, 2012
The weather will have a decidedly spring-like feel across the Lower Mississippi Valley, as an outbreak of severe thunderstorms is poised to develop later today. The outbreak will be reminiscent of those seen in 2011, with gusty winds, hail and tornadoes all possible.
Thunderstorms will develop across Arkansas and Louisiana, quickly becoming severe as they cross the Mississippi River into Tennessee and Mississippi. The strongest storms will be found later this evening across the Mid-South where the storms are able to tap into unseasonably humid air.
These storms will strike western Tennessee, eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi with a fury similar to the storms of 2011. Strong tornadoes, wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph and large hail are all possible today across this region, including Memphis, and Greenville, Miss. Due to the threat of these dangerous storms, the government`s Storm Prediction Center has considered this a Moderate Risk for some of the most dangerous storms.
Beyond this bulls-eye for storm activity, the thunderstorm threat will expand into the Ohio Valley and across the South. Locations from Louisiana to southern Indiana and southwestern Ohio could be at risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm capable of producing 60 mph winds, hail and even a weaker tornado. Cities such as Baton Rouge, La., Jackson, Miss., Birmingham, Ala., Nashville, Tenn., Paducah and Louisville, Ky., Evansville, Ind., and Cincinnati could see a strong thunderstorm this evening or overnight.
Today`s storms won`t come together until late in the day, delaying the storm threat from developing until after sunset. Remember: severe storms and tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous, as they are harder to see and thus have a reduced warning time. Take the time during the day today to make sure your shelter is ready so that you can quickly act when storms come knocking on your door after dark.
An area of low pressure will surge eastward from the Rockies today, crossing from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The low will quickly access warm and humid air building along the Gulf Coast, while also dragging along a pool of cold, Canadian air behind the storm. By this evening, these two air masses will meet and the results will be explosive.
The dynamics for today`s storm threat are much more typical of March or April than mid-to-late January. The low is part of the same storm system that has been responsible for all of the snow in the western U.S., and its exit into the Rockies with all of its energy intact has allowed it to prepare to roar into the central U.S. Fed by multiple jet streams, the same winds that will roar into the Mississippi Valley will force the low pressure responsible for the storms to make a quick turn to the north, scooting across the Great Lakes and into Canada.
